Will Ten Hag’s First Year at Manchester United be a Success?

Why Ten Hag is Not a Rider of Rohan

After a disappointing transfer window and a somewhat embarrassing loss against Brighton, it’s safe to say Erik ten Hag is not off to a good start at Manchester United. 

Of course, it’s impossible to predict whether these are just growing pains. Maybe the squad needs more time to adjust to Ten Hag’s philosophy, maybe the systemic deficiencies at United are simply too big at the moment. But whether Ten Hag’s reign will become a success or not, the current situation is cause for some concern at least. 

To gain some insight on the process United are going through at the moment, let’s take a look at Ten Hag’s first year at Ajax in 2018. We might be able to learn a thing or two.

Ten Hag was appointed as the Ajax manager in December 2017. At that point in time, Ajax was in turmoil. They had just been knocked out of the Dutch cup by FC Twente, and even worse: they were second in the league, 5 points behind PSV. Now, for other clubs, second place is no immediate cause for concern. But in the Eredivisie, Ajax’s standards are extremely high. Anything less than winning it is deemed unacceptable. 

What’s more, in the summer of 2017, fan-favourite player Abdelhak Nouri had suffered a cardiac arrhythmia attack, which left him with severe and permanent brain damage. He was  unable to continue his career as a footballer. The pain this sad event caused for players, fans and staff alike, was palpable at the club for the entire 2017/2018 season.

Fast forward to April 2018. Ajax had just lost against PSV, definitively losing the title race against their Eindhoven based rivals. Ajax fans were livid. On the way back to the Johan Cruyff Arena, the Ajax bus was met by fuming fans blocking its path. Threatening the coaching staff and the players, the assembled crowd demanded change. It’s safe to say Ten Hag’s first six months at Ajax were not a success. 

What happened next may or may not surprise you: the Ajax hierarchy decided to splash the cash on an assortment of new players, thusly backing Ten Hag, while at the same time giving in to the fans’ demands.

First to come in was Dusan Tadic from Southampton. Ajax managed to sign the Serb for a relatively low fee (around €11.5 million), but had to raise their salary cap to accommodate his wage demands. For Ajax, who are used to bringing in youngsters from their academy and signing players from the Dutch league (normally for lower wages), this development was revolutionary.

Next on the list was Daley Blind, who was bought for a fee between €16 million and €21 million (depending on bonuses) - the biggest fee Ajax had ever paid at that time. Here was another player with relatively high wage demands; Ajax had to pay Blind a salary comparable to the one he was used to in the Premier League.

Ajax’s change of strategy, largely conceived of and implemented by technical director Marc Overmars, was a success. At the end of the 2018/2019 season, Ajax were Dutch champions. What’s more, they had reached the semi-final of the Champions League. Suddenly, Ten Hag was Ajax's most successful manager since Louis van Gaal in the mid 1990s. 

Was the level of success Ajax achieved purely thanks to Ten Hag’s genius? No, of course not. By looking at options beyond Ajax’s traditional way of working, for example by raising the salary cap, it had been the Ajax hierarchy who created the conditions for the manager and the players to thrive.

Contrary to popular belief, a manager can’t change a club’s fortunes all on his own. He is never a hero, appearing at the horizon like the riders of Rohan, ready to bring redemption. Any manager will always need to be embedded in a larger technical structure geared towards building a strong, capable and confident squad. 

Does United have this larger technical structure? 

I’m not a betting man, but after last week’s Arnautovic debacle, I would lean towards ‘no’. 

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Think like a Tukker

‘We just can’t be sure’, John said. ‘I mean: he only played in the Eredivisiyay.’

What the? Erik thought. Did he just say Eredivisiyay? Why? 

John scratched his head. 

Does he mean the Eredivisie is fun? Erik asked himself. Is he saying: yay, he played in the Eredivisie?

‘I was thinking, we call Jorge? Maybe he can come up with someone?’ 

Erik looked out the window. A chipmunk sat on a branch. Funny, Erik thought to himself. So many chipmunks in England.

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Ask Elko

Hello Elko,

Why ‘Frenkie’ and not ‘Frankie’?

Greetings,

Harry from Lancashire

A: Frenkie’s parents were fans of the band Frenkie Goes To Hollywood.